Russia could be ready for NATO conflict year after Ukraine, Dutch warn
Dutch military intelligence warns that Russia could be ready to start a regional conflict with NATO within a year after the end of hostilities in Ukraine. Russia's goal would be to create political division in the alliance, potentially through limited territorial gains and nuclear threats.
Russia may be ready to start a regional conflict with NATO within a year after the Ukraine war ends, according to the Dutch military intelligence service MIVD. The MIVD's annual report states that Russia's goal would be to divide NATO through limited territorial gains, potentially under threat of nuclear weapons use. As long as Russia is fighting in Ukraine, a conventional war against NATO is unlikely, but Russia is already making preparations for a possible conflict. Russia is expanding its armed forces, producing heavy weapon systems, and preparing strategic ammunition reserves despite suffering around 1.2 million permanent casualties since 2022. The MIVD notes that Russia's use of methods just below the threshold of open conflict creates a risk of unintended escalation. The Ukrainian defense holding is crucial in delaying the build-up of a potential Russian military threat toward NATO territory.
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