A drop in US births due to smartphone use? These researchers say so.

A study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) suggests the iPhone’s 2007 launch contributed to declining U.S. birth rates. Researchers Caitlin Myers, a Middlebury College economics professor, and her stepson Ezekiel Hooper analyzed birth rates by county between 2007 and 2011, focusing on areas with AT&T coverage, the iPhone’s exclusive carrier. They found birth rates for women in their 20s dropped 14.6% in counties with extensive AT&T coverage, compared to a 10% decline where coverage was limited. Teen birth rates fell 26% in areas with near-universal access, versus 13.8% in low-coverage counties. The study argues iPhone adoption disrupted in-person interactions critical for relationship formation, though it acknowledges other factors influenced birth rates. Hooper noted the findings were surprising in their magnitude, while sociologist Sarah Hayford of Ohio State University questioned the study’s narrow focus on a five-year trend. She emphasized broader societal and economic forces driving long-term fertility changes. Two related studies by University of Cincinnati economists Hernan Moscoso Boedo and Nathan Hudson support the link between digital technology and declining fertility. Their June 2024 research attributed 43% of the U.S. fertility decline since 2007 to cheaper, higher-quality digital tools reshaping social connections. They argue smartphones foster shallow interactions, weakening partnerships and reducing childbearing. The studies collectively suggest technology replaces time spent on deep relationships, indirectly lowering birth rates without reducing desire for children. Critics highlight the studies’ focus on a specific period and region, cautioning against overgeneralizing. While the research isolates smartphone access as a factor, experts like Hayford stress that fertility trends are influenced by multiple economic, cultural, and policy variables. The findings align with broader observations about digital technology’s impact on social dynamics, though their direct causality remains debated.