A forecast supercharged El Niño prompts fear and loathing in East Asia
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns a supercharged El Niño could become the strongest of the century, with a 63% chance of intensifying later this year, threatening East Asia with record heat, drought, wildfires, and floods. Rising energy costs from the US-Israel conflict in the Middle East will further strain power grids, agriculture, and water supplies across the region, according to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo and climate analysts.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a warning about a rapidly strengthening El Niño event, now with a 63% probability of becoming one of the strongest on record by the end of 2024. Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific surged from late April to mid-May, exceeding 6°C above average, signaling the development of extreme conditions. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized in a June bulletin that this event will worsen droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves both on land and in oceans, disproportionately affecting East Asia. Analysts predict farmers, fishermen, and emergency services will face severe challenges, including heatstroke, wildfires, water shortages, and floods, which could devastate crops and harvests. The region is still recovering from a five-year drought linked to the Indian Ocean Dipole, a phenomenon expected to become more frequent due to global warming. Scientists warn extreme El Niño events, historically occurring once every 20 years, may now double in frequency to every 10 years if global temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Asia’s vulnerability is heightened by the ongoing US-Israel conflict, which has driven up energy and fertilizer costs, increasing strain on households and industries reliant on refrigeration and air conditioning. Peter Kiernan, an Asia-based energy and climate policy analyst, noted that power grids, agriculture, and water supplies will face unprecedented pressure if El Niño’s intensity peaks in the second half of the year. The WMO’s Wilfran Moufouma-Okia highlighted the need for urgent preparedness, calling the potential impacts ‘unwelcome’ amid existing climate stressors. Initial observations show subsurface ocean temperatures have created a heat reservoir fueling surface warming, a pattern NASA climatologist Bill Patzert previously dubbed the ‘Godzilla of El Niño.’ Climate models project these extreme events will become more frequent due to rising global temperatures, with projections suggesting a shift from once every 20 years to once every decade if warming exceeds 1.5°C. The WMO and regional authorities are now advising proactive measures to mitigate risks, including reinforcing infrastructure and implementing drought-resistant agricultural practices.
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