A ‘Promising Democracy’ That Can’t Stop Fighting Itself

Colombia’s presidential election, held to replace leftist incumbent Gustavo Petro, has become a defining test of his ‘total peace’ agenda, which sought to negotiate cease-fires with armed groups like the National Liberation Army (ELN). Petro suspended talks last year after the ELN launched an offensive killing over 30 people, though the group has since signaled willingness to restart negotiations with Petro’s successor. The election pits Petro’s ally, Iván Cepeda, who supports continuing negotiations, against Conservative candidate Paloma Valencia and right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella, who advocate for a stronger military response to curb armed group expansion. The debate reflects Colombia’s enduring security challenges, with armed factions staging bombings and drone strikes across rural and border regions despite urban stability. Petro’s critics argue his approach weakened state control, allowing dissident factions of the FARC and other groups to regain territorial influence. Meanwhile, supporters insist military force alone cannot end decades of conflict, emphasizing the need for dialogue to address deep-rooted inequality and elite power struggles. The election echoes Colombia’s turbulent past, including the 1948 assassination of populist leader Jorge Eliécer Gaitán, which triggered *El Bogotazo* and a decade-long civil conflict (*La Violencia*) between Liberal and Conservative factions. A 1950 *The Atlantic* article warned of Colombia’s ‘promising democracy’ unraveling as armed elites backed violent supporters to defend political and economic interests. Over 70 years later, similar patterns persist, with rural violence tied to political divisions and economic disparities. Petro’s presidency, marked by his background as a former M-19 guerrilla member, has been defined by efforts to end conflict through negotiations, though many talks have stalled. The ELN remains Colombia’s largest active guerrilla group, and its recent offensive highlighted the fragility of peace efforts. As Colombians vote, the outcome will determine whether the country shifts toward renewed dialogue or a more aggressive military strategy to address its enduring armed conflicts.