A Race for Governor and a Race for Relevance by David Reel
Eight Republicans are vying for the Maryland gubernatorial nomination in 2024, four more than in 2022, amid optimism about incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore’s vulnerability due to a 48% job approval rating and rising voter frustration over affordability issues. The UMBC poll shows 59% of Marylanders believe the state is on the wrong track, while Moore blames federal policies, though Republicans face an uphill battle due to his fundraising advantage and Maryland’s Democratic-leaning voter registration.
Eight Republicans have filed to compete in Maryland’s 2024 gubernatorial primary, doubling the number from 2022, as the party eyes a potential path to unseat Democratic Governor Wes Moore. A University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) poll released in April revealed Moore’s job approval rating dropped below 50% for the first time since taking office in 2023, with 48% approving and 42% disapproving. The same poll found 59% of respondents believe Maryland is headed in the wrong direction, up from 40% in an earlier survey, driven by concerns over rising taxes, fees, and energy costs during Moore’s tenure. Republicans attribute the decline in Moore’s popularity to economic frustrations, though his campaign cites federal policies under the Trump administration and a Republican-led Congress as the root cause. Dr. Mileah Kromer, director of the UMBC Institute of Politics, noted that while Moore cannot control grocery prices, voters often hold the governor accountable for broader affordability struggles. Despite the challenges, Moore remains a strong candidate, having raised $6 million for reelection and benefiting from name recognition as an incumbent. Maryland’s voter registration shows a narrow Democratic majority—51.4%—while Republicans hold 33.7%, and 34.9% are unaffiliated or registered with other parties. Analysts suggest Moore’s reelection is likely, but the Republican field’s expansion signals a broader effort to regain relevance in a state where the GOP has historically struggled. The party’s future success may hinge on replicating the moderate, cross-partisan appeal of former Governor Larry Hogan, who won two terms by appealing to Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike. While some Republicans dismiss concerns about the party’s future, historical examples of political parties fading into irrelevance—such as the Federalists or Whigs—serve as cautionary tales. For Maryland Republicans, the 2024 race is not just about defeating Moore but proving they can compete in a state where Democratic dominance has long been assumed. The outcome could shape the party’s trajectory for years to come.
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