A Strong El Nino May Be Imminent. Climate Change Will Make Its Effects Worse
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Tuesday that an El Niño event is highly likely to develop between June and August 2024, with a 90% chance of lasting until at least November, potentially becoming strong and exacerbating extreme weather worldwide. Climate change, which has raised global temperatures by 1.3°C since pre-industrial times, is expected to amplify the effects, increasing risks of droughts, floods, heatwaves, and disasters like bushfires and crop failures globally.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced on Tuesday that an El Niño event is likely to form between June and August 2024, with an 80% probability, and a 90% chance it will persist until at least November. El Niño occurs every two to seven years when weakening trade winds raise Pacific Ocean temperatures, disrupting global rainfall patterns and raising temperatures. This year’s event may be stronger than average, with some models predicting sea surface temperatures 1.5°C (2.7°F) above normal in the eastern Pacific. Climate change is intensifying El Niño’s impact. Global temperatures have risen by 1.3°C since pre-industrial times, worsening extreme weather events like droughts, heatwaves, and floods. The WMO warned that 2027 could surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, with El Niño and climate change driving record-breaking temperatures. Regional effects vary, but southern South America and parts of Central Asia typically see increased rainfall, while Central America and Australia face droughts. Heatwaves may also intensify in distant regions like Europe. In 2024, floods in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, killed over 180 people and displaced 600,000, linked to both climate change and El Niño. Experts warn a strong El Niño in 2024 could repeat such disasters, as rising ocean temperatures amplify risks. Southern Africa also faces heightened impacts, with El Niño reducing rainfall during the rainy season, threatening agriculture and hydropower. The Netherlands Meteorological Institute noted that climate change will likely prolong or worsen these dry periods, harming rain-fed farmers. Stronger Pacific cyclones are another concern, according to Italy’s Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change. The WMO emphasized that while each El Niño differs, the combination of climate change and this year’s potential strength poses ‘enormous’ risks. Governments and communities must prepare for heightened extreme weather, food shortages, and economic disruptions.
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