A Strong El Niño Could Be Coming. Countries Are Already Preparing.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warns a powerful El Niño could form this year, potentially raising global temperatures by an unprecedented 3 degrees Celsius and exacerbating extreme weather like droughts in South Asia, Australia, and southern Africa, while reducing Atlantic hurricane activity. Historical El Niño events have triggered famines, political crises, and economic disruptions, including crop failures linked to the French Revolution and severe flooding in Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul in 2023-24.
A strong El Niño weather pattern may develop this year, according to experts, threatening to strain an already overheating planet. El Niño occurs naturally every three to seven years when ocean winds shift, causing heat waves in the Pacific, but this year’s event could be among the strongest on record. The phenomenon has historically led to extreme weather, including flooding in parts of the Americas and droughts in South Asia, southern Africa, and Australia, while typically reducing Atlantic hurricane activity. NOAA’s 2026 hurricane forecast predicts below-normal activity due to El Niño’s influence. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) notes that while El Niño itself is not caused by climate change, its effects are amplified by global warming. Warmer oceans and atmospheres increase energy and moisture for extreme events like heat waves and heavy rainfall. Past strong El Niños have raised global temperatures by 2 degrees Celsius or more, but forecasters now warn this year’s event could push temperatures up by an unprecedented 3 degrees Celsius. Historical records show El Niño’s devastating legacy, including famine-driven uprisings in 18th-century France and crop failures linked to the French Revolution. A 2024 study found 40 percent of European famines between 1500 and 1800 were tied to El Niño. Recent episodes caused severe floods in southern Brazil (1982-83), drought in Colombia (1997-98), and wildfires in the Amazon (2015-16). The 2023-24 El Niño displaced half a million people in Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul due to catastrophic flooding while drying Amazon rivers. Countries are already preparing for potential food shortages and economic instability. The phenomenon’s unpredictable nature makes exact impacts uncertain, but experts emphasize the need for global readiness. El Niño’s combination with human-driven climate change could worsen extreme weather, heightening risks for vulnerable populations worldwide.
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