A trillion dollar question: Will SpaceX's Starship launch go well?

SpaceX is preparing for its most ambitious Starship launch yet, scheduled for Thursday, involving a heavily redesigned version of the rocket. The test includes dozens of new Raptor 3 engines, an upgraded fuel system, and avionics designed for future refueling systems that could enable missions to the Moon and Mars. This launch comes less than a month before SpaceX’s anticipated initial public offering, which analysts project could raise up to $75 billion and value the company at $1.5 trillion—the largest IPO in history. The success of this test is crucial for investor confidence. Franco Granda, a senior researcher at PitchBook, warned that a failed launch could dampen excitement for the IPO. SpaceX’s financial disclosures reveal the stakes: the company spent over $3 billion in 2025 developing Starship, with development costs consuming profits from its launch business, which reported a $662 million loss in Q1. Starship’s design sets it apart as the largest rocket ever built, standing at 400 feet tall and constructed from stainless steel. Its Super Heavy booster uses 33 Raptor engines to propel the rocket into space, while the upper stage ignites six engines for orbital insertion. SpaceX aims for full reusability, with both the booster and Starship returning to the launchpad for rapid relaunch, drastically reducing costs. The rocket’s success is tied to SpaceX’s broader goals, including deploying larger Starlink satellites, serving as NASA’s lunar lander, and potentially transporting AI data centers into space for solar-powered operation. Elon Musk has emphasized Starship’s role in enabling massive payloads to space, a cornerstone of SpaceX’s growth strategy. Financial risks are high: delays or failures in Starship’s development could hinder SpaceX’s ability to execute its plans. The company’s SEC filings highlight this dependency, noting that any setbacks would delay or limit its growth strategy. With billions invested and a high-stakes IPO on the horizon, Thursday’s launch will be closely watched as a defining moment for SpaceX’s future.