A World Cup in the middle of a climate crisis: How will the heat affect your team?

Scientists from World Weather Attribution (WWA) warn that climate change will expose 26 of the 104 matches in the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup to dangerous heat levels. Using historical temperature data and meteorological variables, researchers led by Frederick Otto and Theodore Keeping of Imperial College London found that 25% of matches—scheduled across Canada, Mexico, and the U.S.—risk exceeding 26 degrees Celsius WBGT, a measure accounting for humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed. Five matches may surpass 28 degrees Celsius WBGT, equivalent to 38 degrees Celsius in dry heat or 30 degrees Celsius in high humidity. The study compared these risks to the 1994 World Cup in the U.S., concluding that extreme heat conditions have almost doubled due to climate change, with current temperatures 0.7 degrees Celsius higher than three decades ago. Portugal faces the highest heat risk, with an 80% probability of exceeding 26 degrees WBGT in all three group stage matches. The Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde also have a 74% probability, while Spain’s matches in Atlanta carry a 23% risk, and Guadalajara’s match poses almost no risk. Argentina’s match on June 22 in Dallas at 1:00 p.m. has a 100% chance of exceeding 26 degrees WBGT, with a 22% chance of surpassing 28 degrees. The findings highlight how climate change is reshaping global sporting events, with heat waves becoming a growing threat to player and spectator safety. Researchers attribute the increased risk primarily to fossil fuel emissions, which have intensified global warming since 1994.