AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Montana’s state primary

Montana voters will select nominees in Tuesday’s state primary to fill two key Republican-held seats in Congress, though independent candidate Seth Bodnar could disrupt the general election. U.S. Sen. Steve Daines, who is not seeking reelection, endorsed former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme to replace him, a move supported by President Donald Trump, U.S. Sen. Tim Sheehy, and Gov. Greg Gianforte. Alme faces Republicans Lee Calhoun and Charles Walking Child in the GOP primary, while Democrats nominate former state Rep. Reilly Neill, who has raised five times more than her rivals combined. In Montana’s 1st Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke, citing health concerns, will not run for a fourth term. The Republican field is led by talk radio host Aaron Flint, endorsed by Zinke, Trump, Sheehy, and Gianforte, while Democrats back former gubernatorial candidate Ryan Busse. Bodnar, running independently, has outraised all candidates combined and could draw significant support in the general election. State legislative primaries highlight deep divisions within Montana’s Republican Party, where nine senators—dubbed the ‘Nasty Nine’—defied party leadership in 2025, handing Democrats control of the chamber. Only one of these senators, Shelley Vance, is up for reelection in 2026, while others have left or are term-limited. The Montana GOP has backed challengers to some state House incumbents, clashing with Gianforte, who has publicly supported targeted lawmakers. The primary also reflects Montana’s independent-leaning electorate, where Bodnar’s strong fundraising and lack of party affiliation could sway voters away from traditional candidates. With Republicans holding slim majorities in Congress, these races could influence future control of key legislative bodies. The outcomes will signal whether Montana’s GOP can unite behind its nominees or if further internal fractures will weaken its influence.