Apollo's top economist says AI is about to spark a job-market boom

Torsten Sløk, Apollo Global Management’s chief economist, rejects the prevailing doomsday narrative around AI-driven job losses. In a recent blog post, he cited Jevons paradox—the principle that efficiency gains in one area (like coal usage with steam engines) can increase overall demand—to argue AI will create more jobs rather than eliminate them. Sløk notes that AI will lower the cost of professional tasks such as legal, consulting, and financial services. Historically, cheaper inputs have not shrunk industries but expanded them, he argues, predicting AI will drive down costs while increasing demand for professional work over the next decade. He coined the term ‘Jevons employment effect’ to describe this dynamic, where AI-driven productivity gains lead companies to hire more workers. This aligns with other financial analysts like Andrew Slimmon of Morgan Stanley, who also see AI as a potential job creator rather than a disruptor. Sløk’s perspective contrasts sharply with recent warnings from firms like Citrini Research, which forecast AI-driven employment wipeouts and economic slowdowns by 2026. His analysis suggests AI will instead fuel both productivity and employment growth, challenging the assumption that technological advancements inevitably reduce labor demand. The economist’s argument hinges on the idea that cheaper services spur higher consumption, leading to increased hiring. He concludes that AI will not shrink industries but instead expand them by making tasks more affordable and accessible.