As El Niño Approaches, Scientists Predict Fierce Heatwaves, Wildfires and Floods

Scientists confirmed this week that a developing El Niño will likely intensify global heatwaves, droughts, and floods this year, though they emphasized that long-term fossil fuel-driven warming remains the primary cause of extreme weather. El Niño, a periodic warming phase in the tropical Pacific Ocean, releases stored heat into the atmosphere, temporarily raising global temperatures by up to 0.3°F. However, researchers noted that today’s El Niño effects are far more damaging due to the already elevated baseline climate temperature. During an online briefing, Fredi Otto, a climate science professor at Imperial College London and lead researcher with World Weather Attribution, stated that a moderate or strong El Niño combined with current warming could trigger ‘unprecedented weather extremes’ not seen in past events. The group’s studies on over 100 extreme climate events since 2014 consistently show that human-induced climate change has a greater influence on extreme weather than El Niño cycles alone. For example, their analysis found that human-caused warming ‘far eclipsed’ El Niño’s impact on extreme rains in the Horn of Africa late last year. Jemilah Mahmood, director of the Sunway Centre for Planetary Health in Indonesia, warned that the projected climate impacts could have deadly consequences, particularly from heat-related deaths. She noted that heat crises often go unnoticed until they become severe, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations like outdoor workers. Global heat-related deaths are estimated at 546,000 annually, with the least responsible for climate change often bearing the highest health costs, she said. Wildfire risks are also expected to surge in regions prone to droughts, including the Amazon, Canada, the western United States, and Australia. Theodore Keeping, a wildfire researcher at the University of Reading, warned firefighters in these areas may face some of the most severe conditions in recent history. The combination of El Niño-driven droughts and ongoing global warming is creating a high-risk scenario for catastrophic fires, researchers said.