Asean between raw politics and AI-enabled warfare in West Asia — Phar Kim Beng and Luthfy Hamzah

The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran in West Asia is transforming into the world’s first major AI-assisted geopolitical war, according to Professor Vali Nasr’s analysis at the International Institute of Islamic Thought and Civilisation. AI now influences battlefield operations, including drone coordination, cyber disruptions, missile interception, propaganda, and predictive targeting, while eroding the distinction between civilian and military infrastructure. Financial systems, energy grids, and maritime logistics are increasingly vulnerable to algorithmic attacks, with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz impacting ASEAN’s economy through the Strait of Malacca. ASEAN’s traditional approach of balance, ambiguity, and consensus is under strain as AI accelerates the global arms race toward autonomous warfare. Nasr argues that the world is shifting from rules-based governance to ‘raw politics,’ where technological superiority—such as algorithmic dominance, data control, and AI-driven military integration—determines power. For ASEAN, this creates a dilemma: its decades-long strategy of avoiding overt alignment with great powers may no longer be sustainable in an era of multi-domain conflicts, including AI, cyber warfare, and supply chain control. The West Asia conflict demonstrates how great powers now compete across AI, semiconductors, maritime choke points, and ideological narratives. Autonomous drones, predictive algorithms, and deepfake propaganda are reshaping warfare, while cyberattacks can cripple infrastructure without direct military engagement. China is closely observing whether prolonged conflict weakens U.S. credibility, particularly regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea, raising questions about American primacy. ASEAN’s survival has relied on neutrality and flexibility, but AI-enabled conflicts force the region to adapt. The Strait of Malacca’s economic vulnerabilities and supply chain disruptions highlight how West Asia’s instability directly affects Southeast Asia. Nasr’s warning underscores that ASEAN must prepare for a future where technological dominance, not just military or economic strength, dictates geopolitical influence.