ASEAN Unity and Japan’s Role Amid US-China Tensions

The 2026 *State of Southeast Asia* survey by ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute highlights ASEAN’s shifting stance amid U.S.-China tensions. While trust in China rose to 39.8%—the first time surpassing distrust—over half of respondents (55.4%) remain concerned about its economic dominance, and 66.1% fear its political and strategic influence. Distrust of the U.S. persists, particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia over Palestine policy and in Singapore over opaque trade practices. Though a majority would prefer China over the U.S. in a hypothetical choice, the survey frames this as a rejection of both powers rather than alignment with China. ASEAN respondents emphasize the need for stronger regional resilience and unity to counter external pressures. The survey warns that passive neutrality is insufficient, citing past failures like fragmented tariff negotiations under U.S. pressure, which weakened ASEAN’s collective bargaining power. Without unified action, regional cohesion could erode, undermining ASEAN’s centrality in global affairs. The report identifies systemic obstacles to integration, including weak domestic capacity for policy implementation and disparities in economic development. These challenges outweigh political will or national interest conflicts, suggesting that ASEAN’s success hinges on overcoming institutional gaps rather than ideological alignment. Japan is positioned to play a key role by supporting ASEAN’s autonomy through enhanced institutional capacity and policy coordination. The survey suggests that a third-party approach—neither U.S.-nor China-aligned—could stabilize the region, provided member states can enforce agreed-upon rules consistently. Strengthening ASEAN’s internal mechanisms is framed as critical to preventing fragmentation and preserving its influence in Indo-Pacific geopolitics.