Atlantic hurricane season starts today: What to know about the 2026 forecast

The Atlantic hurricane season started today, with forecasters tracking Saharan dust plumes moving across the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean and Gulf, likely suppressing early tropical development. This dry air, combined with cooler sea surface temperatures in the Main Development Region (MDR), suggests a quieter start to the season. A developing El Niño in the Pacific is expected to strengthen by the peak of the season, increasing wind shear across the Atlantic Basin and disrupting tropical systems before they intensify. Major forecasting agencies, including NOAA and Colorado State University, predict a below-normal hurricane season due to these competing factors. In the East Pacific, the hurricane season has already shown signs of activity. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas for potential tropical development, with one system designated as Invest 90E showing a 90% chance of development over the next seven days. This system could bring significant rainfall to parts of Mexico if it organizes off the coast. Another area in the East Pacific has a 30% chance of development over the next week, though some forecast models suggest it may strengthen further. While exact impacts remain uncertain, early trends indicate the system could remain offshore even if it develops into a tropical depression or named storm. Experts continue to monitor conditions closely, emphasizing the need for preparedness despite the predicted below-normal activity.