Betting on Cybercrime – Prediction Markets and Hacking
Cybercriminals are exploring new ways to profit from prediction markets by exploiting early access to sensitive information or manipulating outcomes. Hackers can place bets on events like data breaches or regulatory decisions and profit from their inside knowledge or influence.
Cybercrime is evolving beyond stealing money or extorting victims. Hackers can now profit from knowing what will happen next or making it happen through prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. These platforms allow betting on real-world outcomes, such as companies disclosing data breaches or regulators approving something. Hackers can exploit early access to sensitive information or manipulate outcomes to win bets. Examples include betting on a company's data breach disclosure after hacking into the company, or manipulating a DeFi project's outcome by exploiting a vulnerability. Attackers can also combine bets with disinformation or influence the outcome through various means, such as controlling votes or manipulating data feeds. Ransomware groups could adjust their tactics to ensure a desired outcome, such as leaking data to make a breach disclosure more likely.
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