Brahma Chellaney On Taiwan: Iran war altering China’s playbook
The Iran conflict triggered by US President Donald Trump has exposed Taiwan's economic and strategic vulnerabilities, testing its faith in American strategic reliability. Elevated energy prices and global supply chain disruptions are eroding Taiwan's cost advantages in semiconductor manufacturing, making its economy more fragile.
The Iran conflict has laid bare Taiwan's strategic and economic fragilities, offering Beijing a real-time tutorial in how to exploit them. Taiwan's economy, which imports 97% of its energy, is now exposed to geopolitical shocks beyond its control. The conflict has accelerated a shift toward a more fragmented global order, politicizing energy and contesting supply chains. Taiwan's reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) has created a system optimized for efficiency, not resilience, with only 11 days of reserves. High energy prices are eroding Taiwan's cost advantages in semiconductor manufacturing, accelerating the relocation of production to the US, Japan, and Europe. The US conflict in Iran has also stretched American military bandwidth, diverting resources from Asia and raising concerns that Taiwan could become a bargaining chip in US-China negotiations.
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