Burnham’s gameplan – and the four scenarios that will decide the next PM

The Makerfield by-election on Thursday night will be a pivotal moment for UK politics, potentially clearing the path for Andy Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer’s premiership or forcing Burnham back to the backbenches. The result could reshape Labour’s leadership, with Starmer returning from the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains facing internal pressure amid speculation about his future. Starmer has ruled out stepping down, telling *Sky News* he will ‘fight’ to retain power, despite allies describing him as privately frustrated by Burnham and Wes Streeting’s challenge. He framed his role as a privilege, emphasizing his global leadership on Middle East and Ukraine peace efforts, though the by-election looms over his premiership. In a strategic move, Starmer publicly praised Burnham as a ‘great asset,’ suggesting he could be offered a senior government role if he returns to Parliament. However, Burnham’s supporters dismiss this as unrealistic, arguing he is focused on becoming Prime Minister rather than serving in a reshuffled cabinet. Labour MPs also question Starmer’s willingness to reshuffle, given his perceived weakness after Defence Secretary John Healey’s resignation over defense funding cuts. Key cabinet positions like Housing Secretary—seen as a fit for Burnham—are already held by loyalists like Steve Reed, making a reshuffle unlikely. Burnham’s allies claim he has no interest in a lesser role, reinforcing the idea that the by-election is a referendum on Starmer’s leadership. The outcome will determine whether Starmer can stabilize his government or if Burnham’s challenge forces a broader political reckoning.