China-Europe cooperation on arms control, disarmament, and non-proliferation: options and opportunities

China and the European Union (EU) first established formal cooperation on arms control and non-proliferation in 2004 with the Joint Declaration of the People’s Republic of China and the European Union, signed in The Hague. This agreement reflected shared priorities in upholding international non-proliferation frameworks, but two decades later, the global landscape has deteriorated significantly. The abandonment of key Russia-US arms control agreements—including the 2002 U.S. withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the 2019 collapse of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, and the 2026 expiry of New START—has removed all limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals. The current environment is further strained by nuclear modernization programs among all nine nuclear-armed states, some of which are expanding their arsenals, while non-nuclear states increasingly express interest in acquiring nuclear weapons. This challenges the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its core non-proliferation norms. Despite these risks, certain global norms remain intact, such as the ban on nuclear testing, enforced by a functional monitoring system despite the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty’s failure to enter into force. Chemical and biological weapons conventions also retain strong support, though chemical weapons use has resurged in recent conflicts. China and the EU could strengthen multilateral arms control by collaborating on maintaining nuclear non-use norms, upholding international humanitarian law, and improving crisis communication. The authors highlight opportunities in areas where both parties have influence, including China’s recent ratification of the Arms Trade Treaty and its role as a UN Security Council permanent member. Such cooperation could help mitigate escalation risks and preserve the NPT’s foundational principles amid growing geopolitical tensions. The urgency of renewed EU-China dialogue stems from the fragility of the current non-proliferation architecture. Without coordinated action, the risk of vertical proliferation (arsenal expansion) and horizontal proliferation (new nuclear states) could accelerate. The authors emphasize that even stable norms, like the nuclear testing ban, require sustained political will to maintain. By working together, China and the EU could help stabilize a system under severe strain from nuclear modernization and the erosion of Cold War-era treaties.