CLARITY Act Update: Crypto Bill Passing Odds Fall as Senators Push Markup to May End
The odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 have dropped to 38% on Polymarket as senators push the markup to the end of May. Senators are split over the timeline, with some, like Senator Bernie Moreno, signaling a markup by the end of May, while others, like Senator Thom Tillis, are pushing for a delay.
The CLARITY Act's passage odds have dropped sharply to 38% on Polymarket as senators delay the crypto bill markup until the end of May. Senator Bernie Moreno stated on April 22 that the markup is expected by the end of May, warning that a delay beyond May could put the bill off the table. Senators are divided, with some, like Senator Thom Tillis, requesting a delay to finalize a compromise on stablecoin yields, while others, like Senators Cynthia Lummis, are pushing for an immediate markup. The American Bankers Association has requested 60 more days to comment on rules tied to the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill, indicating potential delays. TD Cowen has highlighted five additional challenges to the CLARITY Act's passage, including a lack of commissioners at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The odds of the bill being signed into law before 2027 have slightly increased to 58%.
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