Climate Change and Heat Wave Likely to Impact Player Performance at FIFA World Cup 2026

A Climate Central analysis warns that 97 of the 104 FIFA World Cup 2026 matches in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada face a high risk of temperatures above 28°C, potentially reducing player performance due to heat-related effects. Climate change has increased the likelihood of such conditions in nearly half the matches, with some venues like Guadalajara and Miami showing over an 88% chance of heat impacting play." "article": "A new analysis by Climate Central reveals that climate change will likely affect player performance in nearly all matches of the FIFA World Cup 2026, scheduled from June 11 to July 19 across 16 cities in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada. Of the 104 matches, 97 now have a higher probability of being played in temperatures above 28°C—a threshold linked to reduced football performance, including slower sprints, lower distance covered, and slower recovery. Researchers compared current climate data with a hypothetical world without human-caused warming and found that 49 matches have at least a 50% chance of facing heat levels that impair performance. In 26 matches, climate change has increased this risk by at least 10 percentage points, with an average rise of nearly eight percentage points across the tournament. The group-stage match between Uruguay and Spain in Guadalajara faces the highest climate-related risk increase—69.7% chance of exceeding 28°C, up from 32.4% without climate change. Guadalajara, Miami, and New Jersey (host of the final on July 19) are among the most affected venues. Three matches in Guadalajara (June 11, 18, and 23) each have an 88.2% chance of heat-related performance issues, with climate change increasing odds by over 20 percentage points. Miami’s matches on June 15 and 21 also face an 88% risk, nearly 20 points higher than in a stable climate. The final has a 46.6% chance of heat disruption, up 16.6 points due to global warming. Experts warn that temperatures above 28°C could alter match tactics, reduce intensity, and increase risks of heat exhaustion or stroke. Mike Tipton of the University of Portsmouth noted players often cut back on sprinting and effort in heat, while Morten Thorsby, a Norway player, called the findings alarming for both player safety and game quality. Former Jamaican player Alex Jacobs added that extreme heat may become a decisive factor in the tournament. FIFA has already adjusted schedules to include more evening kickoffs in hotter cities and will introduce mandatory hydration breaks for all 104 matches. The study underscores growing pressure on sports authorities to address climate impacts, as rising temperatures reshape elite competition.