Climate change could add 123 million malaria cases in Africa by 2050, study warns
A study by Tanzania’s Ifakara Health Institute and Curtin University warns climate change could cause 123 million additional malaria cases and 532,000 deaths in Africa by 2050, with extreme weather events like floods and cyclones disrupting healthcare access. Researchers found 79% of increased cases and 93% of deaths would stem from weather-related disruptions, particularly in highland regions like Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda, where warmer conditions may expand mosquito habitats and parasite spread.
Researchers from Tanzania’s Ifakara Health Institute and Curtin University in Australia have projected that climate change could lead to 123 million additional malaria cases and 532,000 deaths across Africa by 2050. The study, published in *Nature*, highlights that extreme weather events—such as floods and cyclones—will pose the greatest threat to malaria control efforts, rather than rising temperatures alone. Led by Tasmin Symons and senior author Peter Gething, the team used a geotemporal model analyzing 25 years of African data on climate, malaria burden, and socioeconomic conditions, alongside climate projections from 2024 to 2050 under a moderate emissions scenario. Interviews with 34 officials from humanitarian agencies and national malaria programs revealed that extreme weather frequently destroys health facilities and disrupts medicine access. The study found that 79% of the projected malaria case increase and 93% of additional deaths would result from these disruptions, with interrupted antimalarial treatment accounting for 37.8% of the rise. While rising temperatures might reduce malaria transmission in parts of the Sahel, they could worsen risks in highland regions, including areas around the African Great Lakes such as Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and parts of Tanzania. Warmer conditions may create new habitats for malaria-carrying mosquitoes and the *Plasmodium* parasite in these regions. The researchers emphasize the need for stronger climate-resilient health systems, improved supply chains, and better early warning systems for extreme weather events. They also recommend expanding local health services and increasing malaria vaccine usage to mitigate disruptions. Without sustained funding and long-term planning, the study warns, decades of progress in malaria control could be reversed. The findings underscore the urgent need for integrated strategies to address both climate change and public health challenges in Africa.
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