Climate Change Fuels Surge In Malaria Cases Across Southern Africa, Threatening Elimination Goals

Health workers in Mpumalanga, South Africa, are battling a malaria surge linked to climate change, with cases in the province jumping fourfold in January 2026 compared to the same period last year. The National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) reported over 400 cases and 11 deaths in Gauteng, a non-endemic province, most of which were imported from malaria hotspots. The rise is driven by extreme weather, including heavy rains from the La Nina phenomenon and rising temperatures that accelerate mosquito development. These conditions create ideal breeding sites and shorten the malaria parasite’s incubation period, prolonging transmission even in winter. Namibia recorded 8,760 malaria cases in the first four weeks of 2026—a 68% increase—while Mozambique logged over 1.35 million cases in six weeks, a 55% rise. Experts warn climate volatility is intensifying outbreaks in existing hotspots rather than spreading malaria to new areas. Local clinics, like Cunningmoore Clinic, are overwhelmed as technicians process blood samples for malaria parasites using Giemsa stain. Health officials, including Mpumalanga’s malaria program manager Sharon Lindiwe Nyoni, say traditional seasonal planning is no longer effective, as transmission now occurs year-round. Flooding and extreme heat also hinder intervention efforts, making it harder to deliver control measures to affected communities. Virologist Edina Amponsah-Dacosta noted that climate change disrupts health systems and prolongs outbreaks, particularly in rural and marginal areas.