Climate expert says powerful El Nino combined with global warming increases risk of heatwaves, floods, droughts worldwide.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has raised concerns about an 80% probability of a powerful El Nino forming between June and August 2026, with conditions likely persisting through November. Columbia University’s projections support this, estimating a 98% chance of El Nino conditions emerging during May-July 2026. Yurdanur Unal, a climate scientist at Istanbul Technical University (ITU), warns that a strong El Nino combined with global warming could intensify extreme weather events like heatwaves, floods, and droughts. El Nino occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific rise above normal, weakening trade winds and disrupting oceanic and atmospheric circulation. This phenomenon typically peaks between October and February and recurs every two to seven years. While not all El Nino events cause disasters, they significantly increase the risk of extreme weather, as warmer air holds more moisture, exacerbating anomalies. The last El Nino, in 2023-2024, coincided with record global temperatures, mirroring past Super El Nino events in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016. Unal notes that if temperatures rise 2°C or more above pre-industrial levels due to El Nino, the likelihood of record-breaking heat and extreme weather surges. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports a 96% chance of El Nino persisting through winter 2026-2027, with its strongest temperature impacts often felt the following year. Despite El Nino’s temporary warming effect, Unal emphasizes that human-driven climate change remains the dominant factor in long-term temperature increases. The phenomenon acts as an additional stressor, pushing the climate system toward more frequent extreme events. Scientists caution that while very strong El Nino events may become more common in a warming climate, uncertainty remains about their exact frequency.