Depleted but dangerous, Hamas is holding its fire against Israel. The quiet may not last
Hamas has maintained a ceasefire since October 2023, avoiding major attacks on Israel despite ongoing IDF strikes in Gaza, but experts warn it remains armed and strategically focused on controlling territory and demonstrating resilience. The group’s restraint is attributed to depleted weapon stocks and disrupted smuggling routes, though it continues covert rearmament efforts and maintains operational control east of the ceasefire line.
Hamas has largely refrained from launching attacks on Israel since a ceasefire took effect in October 2023, despite Israel’s continued military operations in Gaza. While the group’s absence from the battlefield may suggest weakness, experts argue it remains armed and strategically positioned, controlling most of Gaza east of the ceasefire line. Jonathan Ruhe, a military expert at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, noted that Hamas maintains a monopoly on force in that area, reinforcing its narrative of survival as a victory. The ceasefire follows Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack that ignited the war, which has since drawn in regional actors like Iran, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. U.S. President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan, announced eight months ago, included disarming Hamas as a key goal, but the group has since reasserted its presence through patrols and public displays of force in Gaza. Online footage shows armed operatives active in the region, though no significant rocket launches have occurred since January, when a failed attempt was reported near Gaza City. Analysts attribute Hamas’s restraint to its weakened military capacity rather than a shift in strategy. Samuel Ben-Ur of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies stated that if Hamas could execute another October 7-style attack, it would, as its goal remains inflicting maximum pain on Israel. Israeli military officials confirmed in March that Hamas’s rearmament efforts are limited due to lost access to smuggling routes, primarily through Egypt. Instead, the group has turned to clandestine methods, such as using submersible containers to smuggle rocket materials from the Sinai Peninsula. The IDF assesses that Hamas’s rearmament remains minimal, with no indication it has regained pre-war strength. The group’s focus appears to be consolidating control over Gaza while avoiding direct confrontation with Israel, though experts caution that the current calm may not last. The ceasefire’s stability hinges on Hamas’s ability to rebuild its capabilities, a process complicated by Israel’s ongoing strikes and the group’s reliance on covert tactics.
This content was automatically generated and/or translated by AI. It may contain inaccuracies. Please refer to the original sources for verification.