Don’t Bet on a DOJ Crackdown Against Insider Trading on Prediction Markets
The US Department of Justice indicted Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US Army master sergeant, for insider trading related to his bets on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, regarding the removal of Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela. Van Dyke allegedly made over $409,000 after the successful military operation.
The US Department of Justice indicted Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a master sergeant with the US Army Special Forces, for insider trading and related federal crimes. Van Dyke allegedly opened a Polymarket account in late December 2025 and placed $33,000 in bets on the proposition that Maduro would be removed from power and that the US would use military force in Venezuela by January 2026. After the successful military operation, Van Dyke cashed out for over $409,000, transferring nearly all of it to a foreign cryptocurrency wallet. The indictment charges that Van Dyke traded on 'material, nonpublic information' and breached his 'duty of trust and confidence' to protect classified information. Van Dyke's defense may argue that Polymarket, a prediction market platform, does not qualify as a 'commodity' under insider trading laws. President Donald Trump commented on the indictment, stating that 'the whole world has become somewhat of a casino'.
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