Don’t celebrate the IMF's outlook just yet: How resilient is India’s growth story in a fractured world?
The IMF projects India's economy to remain resilient with 6.5% growth in 2026-27 and 2027-28, driven by policy support and declining US tariffs. However, India's growth is exposed to risks, including rising energy prices and global economic slowdown.
India's economy is expected to remain a bright spot in an uncertain global environment, with the IMF projecting 6.5% growth in 2026-27 and 2027-28. The growth is attributed to policy support and a decline in US tariffs on Indian goods. However, India's economy is exposed to risks, including rising energy prices due to the war in West Asia, which could lead to a 21.4% increase in oil prices in 2026. India's heavy dependence on oil imports and potential currency depreciation could amplify macroeconomic stress. The country's service-oriented export profile may benefit from the global trade shift towards services. The IMF warns that commodity-importing emerging markets like India are hit hardest by price shocks and currency depreciation.
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