Economists lower Singapore growth forecast for 2026 to 3.5% from 3.6%: MAS survey
Private-sector economists in Singapore have revised their 2026 GDP growth forecast downward to 3.5% from 3.6%, citing slower private consumption and rising inflation expectations. The adjustment reflects concerns over household spending amid easing Middle East tensions, though sector-specific growth forecasts for manufacturing, finance, and construction remain strong.
Singapore’s private-sector economists have trimmed their 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.5% from 3.6%, according to the latest quarterly survey by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). The revision reflects weaker expectations for private consumption, now projected at 3.2% compared to the previous 3.5%, driven by inflation concerns and cautious household spending. The survey, conducted in late May, predates the US-Iran ceasefire deal announced on June 14, which has since eased oil and natural gas prices. Economists had previously anticipated further Middle East conflict escalation, which would have heightened inflation risks. Despite the downgrade, Singapore’s 2026 growth outlook remains robust, with manufacturing growth forecast at 5.0% (up from 4.3%), finance and insurance at 4.5% (up from 3.6%), and construction at 6.5% (up from 5.0%). Inflation expectations have risen, with all-items inflation projected at 2.3% for 2026—double the March estimate of 1.5%. Core inflation, excluding transport and accommodation costs, is also seen at 2.0%, up from 1.5%. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 2.1% by year-end. For 2027, growth projections remain unchanged at 2.5%. On monetary policy, 38% of respondents predict the MAS will further tighten its stance to strengthen the Singapore dollar, with the next policy review scheduled for July. The economy grew 6.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026, outpacing the previous survey’s median forecast of 5.8%, while Q2 growth is expected to reach 4.3%.
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