El Nino Forecast 2026: Will Monsoon in India Be Affected Amid 80% Probability of Return Between June & August?

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a warning that El Niño conditions have an 80% chance of developing between June and August 2026, with a 90% probability of lasting until at least November. This climate phenomenon, characterized by warmer Pacific Ocean waters, disrupts global weather patterns, often leading to extreme heat, droughts, and weakened monsoon systems. For India, El Niño poses significant risks to the southwest monsoon, which historically delivers critical rainfall for agriculture. Warmer Pacific waters can weaken atmospheric conditions that normally carry moisture to the Indian subcontinent, potentially reducing monsoon rainfall and increasing drought risks. A weaker monsoon could severely impact India’s economy, particularly agriculture, power generation, and rural consumption. Lower rainfall may delay sowing, reduce crop yields, and strain water reservoirs, while prolonged heatwaves could exacerbate pressure on electricity and public health systems. Crops like rice, pulses, and oilseeds may face moisture stress, potentially affecting food prices and inflation. However, El Niño’s impact on India’s monsoon is not absolute. Other climatic factors, such as Indian Ocean conditions, can mitigate or amplify its effects. While some regions may experience drought-like conditions, others could face intense rainfall and flooding, complicating forecasts. The WMO notes that El Niño’s development coincides with a warming global climate, potentially pushing temperatures to record highs. Scientists emphasize the need for vigilance, as the phenomenon’s intensity—ranging from moderate to strong—will determine its broader consequences for weather, agriculture, and public health across the region.