El Nino has officially begun, bringing risk of drought, extreme heat and bushfires

The El Niño climate phenomenon has officially begun, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which forecasts it will rival or exceed the record 1997 event in intensity. Meteorologists warn the warming Pacific Ocean cycle will amplify extreme weather worldwide, including heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires, while compounding the effects of human-induced global warming. NOAA’s announcement states there is a 63% chance this El Niño will rank among the strongest on record since 1950. Japan’s Meteorological Agency also declared its onset this week, though Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has not yet confirmed it due to pending atmospheric responses. Australia’s long-range forecast predicts hotter and drier-than-average conditions across southern regions—including South-East Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, and Western Australia—from July to September, with a 60% chance of unusually high temperatures. Climate scientist Abby Frazier of Clark University noted that El Niño’s warm waters fuel extreme events globally, particularly in the Pacific. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called it an ‘urgent climate warning,’ emphasizing that the phenomenon will intensify global warming effects. Recent data shows human-induced warming reached 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels in 2025, with projections exceeding the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit within four years. The impacts vary regionally, with Australia typically experiencing hotter, drier conditions during El Niño. While progress has been made toward climate goals since the 2016 Paris Agreement, current trajectories suggest warming will exceed 2°C—a threshold considered ambitious. Experts stress the need for urgent action to mitigate risks as El Niño’s effects combine with long-term climate trends.