El Nino threat grows as Europe prepares for another hot summer
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Tuesday that El Niño conditions have an 80% chance of developing by August, with near-certainty by November, potentially exacerbating extreme heat and weather events across Europe. Europe, already heating twice the global average, faces heightened risks of heatwaves, drought, and flash flooding as El Niño interacts with existing climate drivers like Atlantic weather systems and rising sea-surface temperatures.
The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced on Tuesday an 80% likelihood of El Niño conditions emerging between June and August, driven by unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific. By November, the probability rises to near or above 90%, with forecasts suggesting at least a moderate—possibly strong—event. While El Niño originates in the Pacific, its effects ripple globally, altering temperature and rainfall patterns, and Europe, the fastest-heating continent, is particularly vulnerable. El Niño occurs every two to seven years, warming surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and disrupting global wind, pressure, and rainfall systems. The WMO emphasized that even a moderate El Niño could intensify heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall in Europe, compounding risks for cities, agriculture, and health systems already strained by climate change. Southern Europe faces heightened wildfire risks, while northern and central regions may experience heavier rainfall. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that El Niño could ‘exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall,’ increasing heatwave risks on land and in oceans. Europe’s warming trend—twice the global average—makes it especially susceptible, with forecasts for June–August indicating above-normal temperatures nearly worldwide. The phenomenon may not dictate Europe’s weather alone but will amplify existing climate pressures. Southern Europe is at higher risk for dry spells and wildfires, while northern areas could see increased rainfall. The WMO urged preparedness, noting that El Niño’s global influence could strain water supplies, crops, energy networks, and healthcare systems. Europe’s recent heatwaves, including record-breaking May temperatures, underscore the urgency of adapting to these climate-driven shifts.
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