El Niño confirmed, set to fuel more extreme weather, says WMO

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed on Tuesday that El Niño has begun, warning it will drive above-average temperatures nearly worldwide and intensify extreme weather. There is an 80% chance El Niño conditions will emerge between June and August, rising to a 90% probability thereafter, according to the WMO. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that El Niño significantly influences global weather patterns, affecting agriculture, energy, trade, water resources, and livelihoods across regions. Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are currently 6°C above average, raising concerns about heightened impacts on vulnerable communities. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the alert as an urgent climate warning, calling for immediate action. The last El Niño in 2023-24 was among the five strongest on record and contributed to record global temperatures in 2024. While the WMO noted no evidence climate change increases El Niño’s frequency or intensity, it amplifies associated extremes like heatwaves and heavy rainfall by providing more energy and moisture. The WMO emphasized preparedness, stating that science and global investments have improved early warning systems. Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are critical to saving lives and mitigating economic and community impacts. WMO and global weather agencies will monitor conditions to guide governments, humanitarian groups, and climate-sensitive sectors. El Niño is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years, lasting nine to 12 months, with peak intensity between November and February. Impacts on global temperatures are most pronounced in the second year after development, and even moderate El Niño events heighten weather extremes.