El Niño forecast to return this summer with risk of record heat in Ireland and globally

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has confirmed a 90% likelihood of El Niño returning this summer, escalating the risk of record-breaking heat and extreme weather events globally until at least November. The natural climate pattern, characterized by rising tropical Pacific sea temperatures, amplifies the effects of human-induced global warming, exacerbating droughts, floods, and deadly heatwaves. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned governments and vulnerable sectors to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño, citing the 2023-2024 event as one of the five strongest on record, which contributed to unprecedented global temperatures in 2024. The WMO anticipates near-universal above-normal temperatures worldwide, with severe impacts expected in the southern hemisphere but widespread effects across the globe. In Ireland, Met Éireann forecasts warmer-than-usual conditions in the second half of June, with indications of reduced rainfall later in the year. Tropical Pacific sea temperatures are already rising due to unusually warm subsurface conditions, exceeding six degrees above average. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the urgency of climate action, calling for a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels and a shift to renewable energy. He described El Niño as a 'warning' that will intensify global heating, with devastating consequences crossing borders at unprecedented speed. The WMO and UN stress that coordinated global efforts are the only effective response to mitigate the crisis.