El Niño is here and scientists fear it'll be big, bad and costly

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially declared the arrival of El Niño on Thursday, a natural warming cycle in the Pacific Ocean near the equator that disrupts global weather patterns. Meteorologists predict this event has a 63% chance of reaching historic strength by late fall or early winter, rivaling the record 1997 El Niño, which caused billions in damage from extreme weather. El Niño is expected to further heat an already warming planet, fueling extreme conditions like heat waves, floods, droughts, tornadoes, and wildfires. The phenomenon works by releasing heat from deep ocean waters, intensifying weather events worldwide. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called it an 'urgent climate warning,' stating it would 'pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.' Regional impacts vary significantly. While El Niño typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity, it increases storms in the Pacific, putting Hawaii and other islands at higher risk. The Middle East may see drought relief, but western South America faces heavy rains and floods, while India and Australia could endure severe heat waves, droughts, and wildfires. Northeastern Africa may experience sudden shifts between extreme drought and heavy rainfall. In the U.S., El Niño often brings heavier rainfall and storms to the South but generally benefits agriculture, particularly for soybeans in major growing states. However, the northern Rockies and Southwest may see summer rains after severe snow droughts. Winter effects typically include wetter conditions in the South and warmer, drier weather in the Pacific Northwest. Economically, elevated temperatures could slow U.S. growth, as climate economist Marshall Burke noted that the economy performs worse during above-normal temperatures. Scientists expect this El Niño to peak earlier than usual, around late fall or early winter, before weakening in spring. Columbia University climate scientist Muhammad Azhar Ehsan’s team forecasts an earlier peak due to strong initial conditions. The combined effects of El Niño and long-term warming may make 2027 the hottest year on record, according to several climate experts.