El Niño is returning – here's how it could affect your travel plans

Japan’s Meteorological Agency declared El Niño conditions officially active in June 2026, marking the first major national forecast to confirm the event. Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3 region reached 1.2°C above normal in May, with warm Pacific waters spreading eastward and weakened trade winds, setting the stage for a potentially strong El Niño. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) now estimates an 80% chance of El Niño developing between June and August, rising to 90% or higher by autumn. The WMO has urged governments to prepare, warning that El Niño could dominate global weather for the next 18 months, with far-reaching effects beyond the Pacific. Travelers may face significant disruptions, including a quieter Atlantic hurricane season but heightened wildfire risks in Southeast Asia, coral reef stress in the Pacific, and increased flooding, landslides, and transport delays in parts of the Americas. The most severe impacts are expected from late 2026 into 2027. Historical El Niño events have caused severe droughts in southern Africa, Ethiopia, and Central America, massive wildfires in Indonesia, and prolonged coral bleaching. The 2024 El Niño contributed to record global temperatures, extreme rainfall in southern Brazil—killing over 180 people and displacing 600,000—and widespread flooding. The phenomenon’s influence extends globally, affecting rainfall in Kenya, drought near Victoria Falls, wildfire risks in Indonesia, and winter storms in California. The WMO has emphasized the need for proactive measures to mitigate potential damage across industries, including travel and agriculture.