El Niño likely to return: The case for early action

Climate models indicate El Niño is likely to re-emerge by mid-2026, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) projecting a possible strong event as early as May–July 2026. National hydrometeorological agencies in Asia and the Pacific have already issued alerts, reflecting growing concern over the phenomenon’s potential impacts. El Niño’s effects are well-documented, with past events triggering drought, forest fires, agricultural losses, and water stress across vulnerable regions. Countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Timor-Leste have repeatedly faced severe consequences, including food insecurity and public health emergencies during strong El Niño cycles. The phenomenon is officially confirmed when ocean warming is reinforced by atmospheric changes, though uncertainty remains about its eventual strength. Historical patterns from events like 1971–73, 1982–83, and 1997–98 show widespread droughts, fires, and diseases such as dengue in South and Southeast Asia. The 2015–2016 El Niño, the strongest of this century, affected over 70% of Southeast Asia’s land area, exposing 200 million people to severe drought. Current risks are compounded by climate change, which intensifies drought conditions through higher temperatures and increased evapotranspiration. Structural vulnerabilities—such as poverty, malnutrition, and reliance on subsistence farming—further amplify the threat. Economic pressures, including reduced remittances and higher debt levels, also limit governments’ and households’ ability to cope with climate shocks. The ESCAP and ASEAN report *Ready for the Dry Years* highlights that overlapping climatic exposure and socioeconomic fragility determine where impacts will be most severe. With fiscal constraints and global economic uncertainty persisting, early preparedness is critical to mitigating potential humanitarian crises in 2026.