Europe Rearms

Europe is rapidly increasing military investments to counter geopolitical threats, particularly from Russia. For the first time since 2014, all 32 NATO allies are expected to meet or exceed the 2% of GDP defense spending target in 2025, with a new commitment at the June 2025 Hague summit to reach 3.5% for core defense needs. The U.S. nuclear umbrella and strengthened Anglo-French nuclear cooperation will supplement conventional forces, reducing reliance on matching U.S. capabilities. Germany is central to this effort, planning to more than double its defense budget to €162 billion ($190 billion) by 2029—surpassing the combined budgets of France and the UK. The rearmament push faces challenges, including the rise of far-right parties like Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD), which could destabilize European unity. Delays in U.S. weapons deliveries to Europe, due to stockpile shortages from the Iran war, further complicate deterrence plans. Meanwhile, Europe’s focus on self-defense has limited its global engagement, leaving it vulnerable to crises like the Strait of Hormuz closure and energy price spikes. Economic weaknesses exacerbate these risks. Former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi warned in a 2024 report that Europe’s productivity gap poses an existential challenge, compounded by the economic fallout from the Iran war. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has compared the potential impact to the COVID-19 pandemic or Russia’s Ukraine invasion. To sustain deterrence, Germany must integrate its military expansion into broader European structures, including joint procurement and force integration. Without unity, the continent’s rearmament efforts could falter before achieving credible defense capabilities. The balance between internal stability and external threats will determine Europe’s long-term security.