Expert warns of 'general escalation' of fighting if Houthis resume Red Sea campaign

The Houthi movement in Yemen announced on Monday a complete ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea, labeling all Israeli ships as legitimate targets. A Houthi spokesperson, Yahya Saree, stated the group would enforce the restriction, marking a sharp escalation in tensions following recent U.S. military actions targeting Houthi forces. The Red Sea has become a critical shipping route for Middle Eastern oil exports to Asia, particularly after disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. State Department condemned the Houthi actions, calling them unacceptable and warning they would further destabilize global supply chains. A State Department spokesperson emphasized that the U.S. would continue working with allies to ensure freedom of navigation in both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies and former U.K. ambassador to Yemen, cautioned that a full-scale resumption of Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping could provoke Israeli and U.S. military strikes on key Yemeni cities like Sanaa and Hodeida. He noted that while such actions risk broader escalation, allies maintain a clear military advantage. Fitton-Brown suggested the Houthis aim to exploit U.S. political divisions and market volatility to pressure Israel and the U.S. Meanwhile, Ethiopia is positioning itself as a critical U.S. partner in countering Islamist terrorism in the Horn of Africa. Despite being landlocked, Ethiopia’s strategic location near the Red Sea corridor makes it a key player in disrupting routes used by groups linked to Iran. Blen M. Diriba, executive director of the Addis Ababa-based think tank Horn Review, described Ethiopia as a ‘keystone state’ blocking Islamist expansion from Iran to Sudan, reinforcing its role in regional security efforts. The Houthi threats coincide with reports of growing U.S. cooperation with Ethiopia to combat terrorism, highlighting the broader geopolitical stakes in the Red Sea region. Analysts warn that any further Houthi attacks could trigger a rapid military response, potentially drawing Iran deeper into the conflict.