Experts warn Trump administration any Iran deal must close plutonium pathway to nuclear bombs
Nuclear weapons experts warn the Trump administration must include strict plutonium pathway restrictions in any Iran deal, citing Iran’s attempts to reconstruct the Arak reactor and potential use of Bushehr’s spent fuel for nuclear weapons. Analysts like Henry Sokolski argue for near-real-time monitoring of Bushehr’s spent fuel, while the State Department emphasizes Iran’s breach of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty obligations.
Nuclear experts are urging the Trump administration to address Iran’s plutonium pathway in any potential nuclear deal, warning that Tehran could exploit uranium-focused negotiations. Iran has repeatedly attempted to reconstruct the Arak heavy water reactor, which was targeted twice—once in June 2025 and again in March 2026—despite bombing efforts. Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, emphasized that any agreement must explicitly ban Iran’s plutonium-based nuclear ambitions. The Bushehr nuclear reactor poses a significant risk, as spent fuel there could contain enough plutonium for over 200 nuclear weapons, according to Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. He warned that Iran may attempt to remove spent fuel from Bushehr to extract plutonium, a process that could be monitored through space surveillance or drones. Sokolski also stressed the need for near-real-time monitoring of the reactor and spent fuel pond, similar to past IAEA oversight during Iran’s uranium enrichment activities. The last IAEA inspection of Bushehr occurred on August 27, 2025, with visits spaced every 90 days—potentially allowing time for fuel diversion. Sokolski noted that President Obama’s administration failed to secure such monitoring despite IAEA requests. Recent IAEA reports have not addressed the plutonium pathway, leaving a critical gap in oversight. The State Department reiterated that Iran’s nuclear program remains a global threat, citing its breach of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty by withholding full cooperation with the IAEA. A spokesperson called for serious diplomatic negotiations to resolve the issue. Meanwhile, David Albright, a physicist and former weapons inspector, expressed skepticism about Iran’s ability to weaponize plutonium from Bushehr due to unresolved design challenges. Expert consensus highlights the urgency of including plutonium safeguards in any future deal, ensuring Iran cannot covertly advance its nuclear capabilities through alternative pathways.
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