Exporting hunger, importing inflation

Pakistan’s food import bill rose 13.81% to USD 7.848 billion in the first 10 months of FY2025-26, while food exports fell 32% to USD 4.19 billion, deepening economic instability. The widening trade gap strains foreign exchange reserves, fiscal deficits, and inflation, particularly as the country remains dependent on IMF oversight and external financing. The sugar sector exemplifies policy failures. Pakistan grants export permits based on projected surplus, only to later import sugar at higher global prices due to domestic shortages. In FY26, sugar imports jumped to 309,000 tonnes (USD 175 million) after negligible imports the prior year, driven by politically influenced decisions and weak stock monitoring. Edible oil imports—primarily palm oil (USD 3.3 billion)—are another major burden, as domestic oilseed cultivation remains underdeveloped. Despite decades of discussions on agricultural reform, crops like sunflower and soybean lack policy support, leaving Pakistan vulnerable to global price swings and currency depreciation. Pulses and tea also contribute to import pressures, as local production fails to meet demand. The recurring cycle of export-driven shortages followed by costly imports privatizes profits while socializing losses, eroding economic sovereignty. Analysts blame weak governance, regulatory capture, and sectoral lobbying for the persistent inefficiencies. Without transparent stock management and disciplined export controls, Pakistan’s food import dependency will continue draining foreign reserves and fueling inflation.