Five things you need to know about El Niño’s likely comeback
El Niño is likely to return later this year, unfolding against a backdrop of unusually warm oceans and an even warmer climate system. Climate models indicate a high probability of El Niño's onset and intensification starting in fall 2026, potentially leading to more heat waves and extreme events.
El Niño, a recurring climate pattern involving changes in sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific, is likely to return later this year. The average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific reached 20.97°C in March 2026, the second-highest value ever recorded for March. Climate models, including those from NOAA, indicate a high probability of El Niño's onset and intensification starting in fall 2026. El Niño tends to intensify the subtropical jet stream, favoring wetter conditions across the southern United States and northern Mexico, while the northern United States and Canada experience a relatively warmer and drier pattern. The phenomenon is a natural part of the ocean-atmosphere system, but its effects can be amplified by human-caused climate change. El Niño's influence extends beyond the Pacific region through climate teleconnections, affecting global pressure and wind patterns.
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