Global fire outbreaks hit record high as 'unprecedented' heat extremes loom, scientists say
Global wildfires burned over 150 million hectares from January to April 2024, 20% more than the previous record, with Africa and Asia hardest hit, as scientists warn of worsening conditions due to an impending strong El Nino and human-induced climate change. The El Nino effect, expected to begin in May, could drive unprecedented heat extremes, droughts, and increased wildfire risks in regions like Australia, the Amazon, and North America, according to the World Meteorological Organization and World Weather Attribution researchers.
Scientists warned on May 12 that global wildfires have reached record levels this year, with over 150 million hectares burned from January to April—20% higher than the previous record. Africa experienced the most severe fires, with 85 million hectares burned, 23% more than the prior record of 69 million hectares, driven by extreme shifts from wet to dry conditions that fueled savannah fires. Asia also saw near-record fire activity, with 44 million hectares burned—40% more than the 2014 record—affecting countries including India, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, and China. The rapid start to the fire season, combined with forecasts of a strong El Nino, suggests 2024 could become one of the worst years for wildfires in recent history. El Nino, caused by warming Pacific sea surface temperatures, is expected to begin in May and could intensify droughts in Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia while increasing temperatures globally. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and researchers from World Weather Attribution (WWA) warned that the combined effects of El Nino and climate change may lead to unprecedented heat extremes and wildfire risks in regions like the Amazon, the U.S., and Canada. Theodore Keeping, a wildfire expert at Imperial College London and part of WWA, noted that the early surge in fires, paired with El Nino, signals a severe year ahead. Africa’s fires were exacerbated by excessive rainfall last season, which produced abundant grass now burning due to drought and heat. Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-founder of WWA, emphasized that a strong El Nino could amplify climate change impacts, potentially resulting in 'unprecedented weather extremes.' The WMO confirmed El Nino conditions are likely to develop this month, with potential consequences including droughts in Australia and southern Asia, as well as flooding in other regions. Researchers stressed that the current trajectory, driven by both human-induced climate change and natural variability, demands urgent attention to mitigate future risks.
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