Global order at a crossroads: Transformation or disorder
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The global order is at a crossroads due to rising instability and conflicts, particularly involving the US, Israel, and Iran, which may lead to a decline in US influence and a shift in global power dynamics. The US's prolonged engagement in asymmetric conflicts, such as the war on terror, has contributed to the rise of China and a relative decline in US influence.
The world is increasingly unmoored, with the disappearance of shared principles and common purpose fragmenting global standards. The ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran is a central source of instability, with limited tangible benefits and significant costs. The US's actions toward Iran risk weakening support for Ukraine while indirectly benefiting Russia's economy. The broader effects on US inflation, economic stability, and international credibility are unlikely to be positive. The US's prolonged engagement in asymmetric conflicts, such as the war on terror, has contributed to the rise of China. China's accession to the WTO in 2001 marked a significant shift in global trade, with China becoming the world's largest trading nation within a decade. The US's share of global manufacturing fell to roughly half of China's by the end of the war on terror. China's output eventually surpassed the combined manufacturing capacity of the US, Japan, Germany, and Korea.
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