Global temperatures set to stay near record levels: UN weather agency

A joint report by the UK Met Office and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warns that global temperatures will likely remain near record levels over the next five years. There is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, while a 91% likelihood exists that average global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels during this period. The 1.5°C threshold is a critical benchmark under the Paris Agreement, though temporary breaches do not invalidate long-term climate goals. The report projects annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average, with a 75% chance that the five-year average will exceed 1.5°C. Leon Hermanson, the report’s lead author, noted that an El Niño event predicted for late 2026 increases the likelihood of 2027 becoming the next record-breaking year. The Arctic is expected to warm at an alarming rate, with temperatures averaging 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 baseline during northern hemisphere winters—more than three times the global average. This rapid warming will accelerate sea ice loss in regions like the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk, further disrupting ecosystems and weather patterns. Shifts in global rainfall patterns are also anticipated, with higher-than-average precipitation forecasted for parts of the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia, while drier conditions are expected in the Amazon and subtropical regions. These changes underscore the increasing frequency of extreme weather events linked to climate change. The report aims to assist governments and weather agencies in preparing for near-term climate risks, emphasizing that these projections are no longer distant possibilities but imminent challenges. The WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction produced the findings using data from the UK Met Office.