Global warming hits 1.37°C, may cross Paris accord limit in 4 years: Study
A study by over 70 scientists found global warming reached 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels in 2025, driven by record greenhouse gas emissions of 56.8 gigatonnes, with the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold likely to be crossed in four years. The Earth's energy imbalance is at a record high, accelerating heat accumulation, while marine heatwaves have tripled in frequency since 1991, with 65 days of such events recorded in 2025 alone.
An international team of over 70 scientists from 56 institutions across 17 countries, including the UK, US, India, and Europe, has published findings in the *Earth System Science Data* journal warning that global warming has reached 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900) in 2025. The study, part of the fourth edition of the *Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC)* report, highlights that human-induced warming is increasing at a rate of 0.27°C per decade over the past decade, driven by record-high greenhouse gas emissions of 56.8 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2024. The Earth’s energy imbalance—the difference between incoming solar radiation and outgoing heat—has reached a record high, doubling since the 1970s. This imbalance measures how quickly heat is accumulating in the climate system, with human activities identified as the primary cause. The study estimates that the remaining carbon budget to stay below 1.5°C is just 130 gigatonnes, which at current emission rates could be exhausted in around three years. The report also introduces a new indicator: marine heatwaves, which have more than tripled globally since 1991. In 2025 alone, there were 65 days of marine heatwaves, reflecting the rapid warming of ocean surfaces. Lead author Piers Forster, professor at the University of Leeds, emphasized that nearly all recent warming is driven by human activities, with impacts on ecosystems and livelihoods already accelerating worldwide. While carbon dioxide emission growth is slowing, the study warns that society must significantly increase decarbonization efforts during this critical decade to avoid surpassing the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold. The analysis, based on over 40 global datasets, underscores the urgent need for action to mitigate future warming and its consequences. Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the Copernicus Climate Change Service, noted that the effects of rising temperatures are already being felt globally, with further acceleration expected as warming continues. The findings highlight the urgency of addressing climate change through reduced emissions and enhanced adaptation strategies.
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