Graham Platner leads Susan Collins by 7 points in latest poll

Graham Platner, a progressive oyster farmer, leads five-term Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins by seven percentage points in the latest Maine poll, marking a significant shift in the must-win race for Democrats aiming to retake the U.S. Senate. The survey by Portland-based Pan Atlantic Research, released Wednesday, shows Platner with 48% support compared to Collins’ 41% among 402 likely Democratic voters, with a margin of error of 3.7 points. Platner’s lead is strongest in the 1st Congressional District, where he leads by 20 points, but Collins maintains a 45% to 41% edge in the conservative-leaning 2nd District, where she won statewide in 2020 despite trailing in every public poll. The race reflects deep partisan divides, with Platner favored by independents (48% to 35%) and women voters (by nearly 20 points), while Collins holds a slight advantage among men and voters without college degrees. The campaign has seen unprecedented spending, with over $125 million booked in advertising from January to November—exceeding the record set in the 2020 election. Republican groups backing Collins have reserved $80 million in ads to highlight her experience and attack Platner’s past Reddit posts on sexual assault, which have drawn criticism from both Democrats and Republicans. Platner’s favorability rating stands at +3, while Collins’ is at -18, and President Trump’s approval remains at 37%, the lowest of his second term, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. The race has framed Platner as a working-class candidate opposing entrenched politicians, while Collins leans on her bipartisan image and record of securing federal funds for Maine. With Platner now the presumptive Democratic nominee after Gov. Janet Mills suspended her bid, the poll underscores the challenges ahead for Collins in a state where economic concerns and opposition to Trump’s policies may favor the challenger.