History suggests a ‘Godzilla’ El Niño could be on our doorstep

Southern Africa’s history shows El Niño events often bring drought, famine, and economic hardship, and scientists now warn a powerful 'Godzilla' El Niño could emerge by July. This event may rival the 1876-78 Great Famine, which caused widespread drought and killed over 50 million people globally, including in Asia, Brazil, and Africa. The upcoming El Niño could become strong to very strong, according to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the California Institute for Water Resources. He notes that global temperatures have already risen 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, increasing the risk of unprecedented extreme weather, including droughts, floods, and wildfires, by 2026-2027. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned in May that global temperatures may remain near record levels in the next five years, with El Niño raising the likelihood of 2027 becoming the hottest year on record. Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO report, stated that El Niño increases the chances of extreme conditions, including drought in Southern Africa and potential flooding in regions like Cape Town. While the 1876-78 El Niño did not cause starvation on the scale seen in India or China, Southern Africa still faced severe drought and hunger. Historical records show 1878 was the wettest year in Cape Town’s 176-year rainfall record, illustrating the unpredictable nature of El Niño’s impacts. Climate change, driven by fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas accumulation, is amplifying the risks of extreme weather events. Swain explained that each strong El Niño now occurs against a warmer global baseline, intensifying droughts and floods. The combination of El Niño and climate change creates a dangerous scenario for food security and economic stability in vulnerable regions.