Hottest year on record almost certain to occur by end of 2030, UN warns

The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a stark warning: there is an 86% chance that at least one of the next five years will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record. The report, published on Thursday, also states a 75% probability that the five-year average temperature from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a critical threshold under the 2016 Paris Agreement. The WMO’s findings highlight accelerating climate change, with the Arctic projected to warm 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 average over the next five winters—more than three and a half times faster than the global average. Meanwhile, rainfall is expected to increase in regions like the Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia, while the Amazon faces drier conditions. The warning coincides with a severe heatwave in Western Europe, where temperatures in the UK reached over 35°C (95°F) in May—breaking national records for the second consecutive day. UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell called the heatwave a reminder of the escalating climate crisis, emphasizing that human-induced warming is intensifying extreme weather. The report underscores the urgency of global action, with experts like Michael Jacobs, professor of political economy at the University of Sheffield, stressing the need for faster transitions to renewable energy. Jacobs noted that fossil fuel volatility further justifies accelerating Paris Agreement commitments rather than abandoning them. Scientists caution that exceeding the 1.5°C threshold risks worsening extreme weather, including heatwaves and storms, with long-term consequences for ecosystems and economies. The WMO’s projections reinforce the need for immediate, coordinated climate mitigation efforts worldwide.