How Brexit has made Britain poorer – in charts

The UK economy is 4-8% smaller than it would have been without Brexit, with GDP per capita significantly lower than pre-2016 trends, according to analyses by the Office for Budget Responsibility and Stanford economist Nick Bloom. The pound, which plunged 10% on the day of the 2016 referendum, has never recovered to its pre-Brexit level, currently trading at $1.34 and €1.15, worsening costs for imports and holidaymakers. Trade and business investment have stagnated due to uncertainty, while inflation spiked after the pound’s collapse, increasing living costs for households. Exporters failed to capitalize on the weaker currency, as global trade tensions and domestic instability dampened demand. The Treasury’s pre-referendum forecasts, dismissed by Brexit supporters as alarmist, now appear accurate in their long-term projections, with the economy projected to suffer a 4% hit to national income over 15 years. Charlie Bean, former Bank of England deputy governor, noted that while the immediate recession did not materialize, the long-term economic damage aligns with early warnings. The UK’s growth trajectory diverged sharply from other advanced economies post-2016, widening an output gap that persists a decade later. Households are estimated to be thousands of pounds worse off annually due to higher prices and reduced economic output. The pound’s decline directly contributed to an inflation shock, straining public finances and squeezing household budgets. While Brexit supporters argued the forecasts were exaggerated, independent analyses now confirm the economic costs of leaving the EU. The UK’s economic performance remains weaker than comparable nations, with no signs of recovery to pre-Brexit growth levels.