How do hurricanes and typhoons form and is climate change making them stronger?

The U.S. science agency NOAA forecasts the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will produce between three and six hurricanes, below the average of seven, between June and November. Meanwhile, the central and eastern Pacific regions are expected to experience above-average activity, influenced by the emerging El Niño pattern, which disrupts Atlantic storms but fuels Pacific ones. Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones—collectively called tropical cyclones—form over warm tropical ocean waters, requiring sea surface temperatures of at least 27°C and stable wind conditions. These storms develop from atmospheric disturbances like tropical waves, where warm, moist air rises and spins due to Earth’s rotation, creating high winds, heavy rain, and storm surges. Climate change does not appear to increase the global frequency of tropical cyclones, though data limitations persist in some regions. However, the UN’s IPCC reports medium confidence that a higher proportion of storms have reached category three or above since the 1980s, with increased rainfall rates and rapid intensification events in the Atlantic. Slower-moving storms, like Hurricane Harvey in 2017, which stalled over Houston dumping 100cm of rain in three days, pose heightened risks. Scientists warn that even one intense storm can cause major damage, as rising temperatures may enhance wind speeds and rainfall. Poleward shifts in peak cyclone intensity, such as in the western North Pacific, further complicate regional risks. While global numbers may not rise, the potential for destruction from individual storms is growing.